Statistical models of field growth

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  1. Reduce model uncertainties: with additional radiometric age dating, locate buried vents, identify stratigraphic relationships
  2. Estimate uncertainty in recurrence rate: using a Monte Carlo approach (K. Kiyosugi model).

    recurrence_model

  3. Use lava flow simulations: to reconstruct topography and show vent field development, assess progressive burial of vents, and assess uncertainty in eruption timing and volume.